Professional's Points of View

Driving Forces in Emerging Markets for Car Manufacturing in the Electric Vehicle Era
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-05-02 15:00

Driving Forces in Emerging Markets for Car Manufacturing in the Electric Vehicle Era

The advent of the electric vehicle (EV) era has sparked weighty transformations in the global auto market. Traditionally dominated by Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea, this industry is now witnessing real shifts. China, already surpassing Japan in 2023 as the world's largest auto exporter, is a formidable player. However, an even more astonishing contender has emerged: VinFast, hailing from Vietnam. Despite selling fewer than 8,000 EVs in 2022, VinFast set an ambitious target of 50,000 sales for 2023. The big moment came when VinFast Auto debuted on Nasdaq in the US on August 15, 2023. The stock price soared, catapulting VinFast into the status of the third-largest auto company worldwide by market capitalization in two weeks. Substantial acclaim ensued unwaveringly.

A Brief Discussion on the Future Role of Electric Vehicles in Energy Storage Systems
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-05-02 11:15

A Brief Discussion on the Future Role of Electric Vehicles in Energy Storage Systems

Taiwan was just hit by a strong earthquake, the strongest since the 921 Earthquake in 1999. Measuring 7.3 magnitude on the Richter scale, the earthquake caused catastrophic damage in Hualien, near the epicenter, and resulted in power outages, affecting up to 3.2 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in Taiwan's power plants.

A fossil fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle next?
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-04-30 12:04

A fossil fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle next?

In the past two years, because of my articles on the future of the automotive industry, friends—both familiar and unfamiliar—have posed a common question on various occasions: If I want to buy a new car or replace my old car now, should I opt for a fossil fuel vehicle or an electric vehicle (EV)? The decision isn't straightforward. Electric cars are still costlier than their internal combustion engine counterparts. However, sticking with a traditional fuel car might mean acquiring the final iteration of that vehicle. This could leave you facing the challenge of finding someone to take over your car or reselling your car with diminishing resale value in the future. In this context, I'd like to share my personal insights and recommendations.

A Brief Discussion on Next-Generation Battery Progress
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-03-18 15:00

A Brief Discussion on Next-Generation Battery Progress

According to media reports from the other side of the Taiwan Strait, during the peak of the Spring Festival, extensive freezing rain covered an area of over 300,000 square kilometers in east-central Guizhou, north-central Hunan, east-central Hubei, central Anhui, and southeastern Henan. This extreme weather event, the most intense since 2009, had significant consequences. Highways became treacherous, causing vehicles to lose control due to icy roads, resulting in large-scale accidents and injuries. Moreover, people and vehicles found themselves stranded on icy road surfaces. Electric vehicles (EVs) were particularly affected, with their liquid lithium-ion batteries experiencing a drastic reduction in performance due to the freezing weather. As a consequence, the original range of these EVs, typically around 400 to 500 kilometers, was greatly compromised. Many social media users, often referred to as "EV Man," shared their experiences during this challenging situation. In dynamic Instagram Stories, they described a scenario where they were stuck in a 20-kilometer highway traffic jam for 5 hours. The service areas were also congested with cars. EV owners faced a dilemma: they couldn't risk using air conditioning in their vehicles because it would significantly impact their liquid lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, they had to turn off the engine and endure the cold. Some EV roofs were even covered in snow, and owners had been stranded for more than 20 hours, seeking fresh air outside their vehicles. This situation amplifies the Achilles' heel of liquid lithium-ion batteries operating in low-temperature conditions. Naturally, questions have arisen in the market about whether new energy vehicles (NEVs) can truly replace traditional gasoline/diesel-powered cars.

The Future of Joint Venture Cars in China
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-03-18 14:50

The Future of Joint Venture Cars in China

Since it outdid the U.S. to be the world's largest automotive market in 2011, China has been the holy grail for global automotive brands. However, for China to overtake on a bend and transform from a powerhouse to a global hegemon, the government implemented a dual strategy in 2010. First, it launched a new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidy program to promote the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles. Simultaneously, it enforced a license plate restriction policy in major first- and second-tier cities. This policy limited the issuance of license plates for conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles, curbing their proliferation and encouraging the transition to cleaner alternatives. Local Chinese automakers were driven to shift focus as a result. They moved away from technical and financial cooperation with international joint venture car manufacturers and embarked on developing their own electric vehicle (EV) brands and industrial chains. In a mere five years, China outpaced the U.S., selling 207,000 EVs, and took the crown as the world's largest EV market in 2015. Fast forward to 2023, China's EV production had skyrocketed to 6.11 million units—an exceptional 30-fold increase in just eight years. Furthermore, NEVs accounted for over 35% of China's total market share, with a staggering 9 million such vehicles on the roads. China's vast domestic market not only provides fertile ground for emerging brands but also offers a unique opportunity for Chinese automakers to fortify cost competitiveness. Their well-established supply chains, developed over two decades, contribute to this advantage. China has even overtaken Germany in terms of car exports, and last year, it surpassed Japan to become the world's largest car exporter, with an annual export volume of 4.91 million vehicles.

China Outshines Japan: A Discussion on Car Exports
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-03-07 12:00

China Outshines Japan: A Discussion on Car Exports

Since the 2024 Spring Festival, two major developments in the automotive market have been closely tied to China. First, there's the unignorable ascent of BYD, and second, China's automotive exports have surpassed Japan's.

A discussion sparked by Akio Toyoda
劉宸志 Kenny Liu 2024-02-19 11:00

A discussion sparked by Akio Toyoda's assertion that electric vehicles will at most constitute 30% of the global market share

As we step into the year 2024, the electric vehicle (EV) market faces relentless headwinds. Despite the global recognition and official inclusion of the transition away from fossil fuels and the accelerated promotion of renewable energy in the text of COP28 (the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference), which took place in Dubai from November 30 to December 13, 2023, the actual automotive market paints a different picture. The EV, a symbol associated with environmental sustainability, has fallen victim to viral negative rumors. EV leader Tesla, for instance, experienced a price cut in the fourth quarter of last year (2023), impacting its financial report, and the fact that the Cybertruck's mass production remains elusive is not helping. Similarly, Ford has scaled back its EV production due to business losses, while GM has abandoned its goal of producing 400,000 EVs by mid-2024.