3.5% of last year’s Taiwanese car market’s registration number were EVs, roughly sitting at 15k units and a global EV sales ratio of 0.14%, vastly lower than the new car market’s 0.55%. From another perspective, this means Taiwanese EV promotions still have a lot to improve. Most potential new car buyers’ considerations and obstacles to switching from ICE to EV will gradually be obsolete in three years. In addition, the global car market trend is reaching new heights from last year’s astounding 10-million EV achievement.

During 2020 and 2021, traditional automakers worldwide dished out their five, ten, and fifteen-year strategies for vehicle electrification with roughly identical crucial timings: 2025, 2030, and 2035. The first five years to develop brand-new EV platforms, the second five to expand EV sales to designated ratios, and the third to phase out ICE production and go fully electric. Of all these plans, VAG’s iconic strategy stood out for its elaboration, thoroughness, and ability to utilize and integrate multi-brands resources. However, after more than a year, VAG’s development fell behind schedule. With Chinese self-owned brands starting to overtake the group, VAG has to take immediate action.

As the global EV market size is going up to 10 million units this year, the Chinese market alone takes up 55%. China’s influence and innovation in the new auto industry cannot be overstated. Aside from Chinese auto brands, only Tesla proves a worthy match against the industry powerhouse around the globe. Traditional automakers such as Toyota, VAG, Hyundai, GM, Ford, BMW, and Mercedes still have a long way to go to launch competitive EV models. As JV car brands’ sales performances began to falter in the Chinese market this year, everyone has been racing against the clock, especially towards the end of this year, those brands which solely rely on ICE products had lost over a third of their business opportunities while EVs’ penetration rate crept over ⅓. In the coming years, this situation is only getting worse.

Lithium-ion batteries have been the mainstream EV batteries to date and will continue to be for at least one more decade. Solid-state batteries, meanwhile, will be developed into the next-generation product that improves the energy density and safety of lithium-ion batteries, but the biggest problem lies in the manufacturing cost, especially the supply of raw materials. Another trend in the battery industry is to solve the problem of sourcing raw material first and spur new types of batteries, such as lithium-sulfur and sodium-ion batteries, to stay away from soaring prices of raw materials like nickel and cobalt. Major battery manufacturers will kick off trial production of the new breeds of batteries next year, and the subsequent market effects are worth looking forward to.

Since 1992, the EU emission regulation has been executed for 30 years by now; and it also confirmed the ultimate goal of zero carbon emission in 2035 in the 30th year. I think that the current proposal of Euro 7 should not focus on ICE cars that is phasing out, but motivate the transformation of electrification of traditional carmakers by the implementation date of Euro 7, so that it will have concrete benefit for the progress of zero carbon emission.

Tesla and BYD, the world's top two EV colossi have been leading the wave of EVs to sweep across the globe for two consecutive years, particularly since the release of production capacity at Tesla's Shanghai plant last year and BYD's announcement this April that it was leaving gasoline vehicles for EVs at full throttle. EVs are coming, so fast and strong they will account for more than half of the total sales around 2030 and beat gasoline vehicles, which have dominated the history of the automobile for over a century. In the era of new auto technology driven by EVs, any variable is possible in sales, but the one constant is that EVs will unequivocally rule the global auto market within a decade.

Although modern fuel cell battery technologies have been in active development for decades, their contribution to production vehicles is only a few years old. Despite EV being the industry’s current focus and FCV remaining a highbrow field, I still believe the latter is an essential part of net zero 2050. Still, from a business perspective, FCV will maintain a lower presence in the future 10-year EV market boom.